The Many Faces of Prophecy: From Moses to Machines

The problem of leadership is inevitably: Who will play God?

Frank Herbert, God Emperor of Dune

August 21, 2019. White House briefing. Trump looks up at the sky: “I am the chosen one.” Campaign signs below read “Chosen by God.”

A significant evangelical movement believes Trump is a prophet as he prepares to enter office again. This shouldn’t surprise us — every age gets the prophets it craves, and prophets have always used the most powerful communication technologies of their time.

The Shape-Shifting Prophet

Moses brought divine law carved in stone. Medieval prophets spread their message through the new technology of books. Modern prophets tweet.

But it’s not just the medium that changes. Each age needs its own flavors of certainty:

The ancient and medieval world needed religious certainty. The Buddha, Confucius, Jesus, Mohammed, and many others led movements that reshaped the world. They offered clarity about humanity’s place in the cosmos.

The scientific revolution brought a new kind of prophet. James Watt, Benjamin Franklin, Darwin, Marconi, Edison — these weren’t just inventors and scientists. They were prophets of progress, promising a future their followers could believe in. And remarkably, many of their prophecies came true!

The industrial age birthed prophets of social change. Marx, Lenin, and Trotsky predicted the socialist future with religious certainty. Mao and Pol Pot were treated as divine figures. Their prophecies moved millions and killed millions.

The post-war period gave us environmental prophets. Rachel Carson warned of ecological collapse. Paul Ehrlich prophesied population disaster. The latter contributed to China’s one child policy and the demographic collapse now facing much of the world.

When Prophecy Kills

The 20th century showed us prophecy’s darkest side:

Jim Jones led 918 followers to death in Jonestown. David Koresh’s prophecies ended with 76 dead, including 25 children. Heaven’s Gate saw 39 educated Americans commit suicide to “ascend to a spacecraft.” Aum Shinrikyo, led by a prophet who attracted scientists and engineers, killed 13 in the Tokyo subway. The Movement for the Restoration of the Ten Commandments killed 778 in Uganda.

What’s striking isn’t just the death toll. It’s how modern technology amplified these prophets’ reach. Jones used recording technology and media manipulation. Heaven’s Gate used early internet. Aum Shinrikyo employed modern technology and media strategies.

The Prophet’s Promise

Through all these changes, prophets offer the same core promises:

Special insight into the future
Access to hidden knowledge
Simple explanations for complexity
Certainty in uncertain times
A unified worldview that makes sense of everything

These promises tap something deep in human psychology. We desperately want the world to make sense. When someone seems to make it make sense, we follow them. Often literally.

The scary part isn’t just that people believe. It’s how belief licenses extreme behavior. A prophet’s mistakes get multiplied by thousands or millions of followers, each absolutely certain they’re doing the right thing.

The Modern Mask

Today’s prophets wear different masks. We’re too sophisticated for stone tablets, but we still crave certainty. So:

Religious prophecy becomes “divine insight”
Political prophecy becomes “expert analysis”
Economic prophecy becomes “market prediction”
Cultural prophecy becomes “trend forecasting”
Scientific prophecy becomes “data-driven forecasting”

The language changes, but the psychology doesn’t. Whether it’s a Wall Street guru predicting markets or a tech CEO predicting the future, they’re playing the prophet’s ancient role.

Technology tends toward avoidance of risks by investors. Uncertainty is ruled out if possible. People generally prefer the predictable. Few recognize how destructive this can be, how it imposes severe limits on variability and thus makes whole populations fatally vulnerable to the shocking ways our universe can throw the dice.

Frank Herbert, Heretics of Dune

A Perfect Storm

The modern world is the safest, richest time to be alive. But it’s also deeply uncertain. Technology and culture change faster than ever. Old certainties crumble daily.

This creates perfect conditions for prophets. Social media lets charismatic figures find followers instantly. AI-driven algorithms help them target susceptible audiences. Competition among prophets drives rapid evolution of their techniques.

The fragmentation of modern media means we have thousands of mini-prophets — influencers, politicians, pundits, podcasters. Maybe we’re lucky there are so many. It’s harder for any one of them to gather truly massive followings (though we can all think of exceptions…).

Next: When AI Joins the Game

In the next part, we’ll explore what happens when AI enters this fertile ground. As discussed in Part 1, AIs will be the most effective actual prophets we’ve ever seen. They’ll predict and manage our daily lives with unprecedented accuracy.

They’ll also be master communicators, able to adapt their message perfectly to each follower. The question nobody’s asking is: as people start to trust and follow AIs in large numbers, where will they lead us?

Will they be aligned with our interests? Will malign humans weaponize them? Or will complex feedback loops between AI predictions and human behavior lead us somewhere nobody intended?

I wrote the Dune series because I had this idea that charismatic leaders ought to come with a warning label on their forehead: “May be dangerous to your health.” One of the most dangerous presidents we had in this century was John Kennedy because people said “Yes Sir Mr. Charismatic Leader what do we do next?” and we wound up in Vietnam. And I think probably the most valuable president of this century was Richard Nixon. Because he taught us to distrust government and he did it by example.

Frank Herbert